An Application of Non-Monotonic Probabilistic Reasoning to Air Force Threat Correlation

1. Qyerview of the System. Current approaches to expert systems' reasoning under uncertainty fail to capture the iterative revision process characteris­ tic of intelligent human reasoning. This paper reports on a system, called the Non-monotonic Probabilist, or NMP (Cohen, et al., 1985). When its in­ ferences result in substantial conflict, NMP examines and revises the assump­ tions underlying the inferences until conflict is reduced to acceptable levels. NMP has been implemented in a demonstration computer-based system, described below, which supports threat correlation and in-flight route replan­ ning by Air Force pilots.